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5.2.1 Large Scale and Combined Disasters

This chapter is relevant to issue Disaster Management for Combined and Large Disasters. The definition of what constitutes a large and/or combined disaster varies. Therefore, the scope of this chapter is to provide an overview of the existing definitions for combined and large disasters followed by experiences and lessons learned from disaster occurrence in terms of coordination of the authorities responsible for disaster response and the risk/disaster management techniques applied to minimize the consequences of their impact.

5.2.1.1 Definition of large-scale disasters

There exist several definitions for large-scale disasters. The ones provided next are among the most prevalent and commonly used:

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

OECD defines as being of large-scale any serious disaster which:

  • Causes huge casualties or property losses and/or results in infrastructure large-scale damage
  • Can hardly be coped with by only one nation or region and it shall therefore be handled by means of external resources

According to the above, a major disaster is a catastrophic, high-consequence event which:

  • overwhelms or threatens to overwhelm local and regional response capability; and
  • is caused by natural phenomenon, massive infrastructure failure, industrial accident, or malevolent action.

Indicators of capacity overload include the following:

  • inability to adequately manage immediate rescue of survivors
  • significant backlog of victims waiting to get medical care or other essential support
  • inability to protect vital infrastructure or prevent significant property damage
  • signs of uncontrolled societal breakdown and psychological trauma

Insurance companies

  • The USA Insurance Services Office defines a large-scale disaster as any event that causes a direct covered-property loss of at least $25 million (USD) and affects a certain number of insurers and insureds.
  • Swiss Re (Swiss Reinsurance Company) defines this loss amount as $38.7 million.
  • According to Munich Re (Munich Reinsurance Company), any natural disaster is defined as a catastrophe, provided that, upon occurrence of such a natural disaster that the disaster area cannot help itself with its force, but has to rely on the regional or international assistance.

International Experts

  • Ma Zongjin 1, academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences, defines as Large-scale Disaster any disaster causing more than 10,000 human casualties (deaths) and a direct economic loss of over RMB 10 billion Yuan (1.6 billion $).
  • Mohamed Gad-el-Hak 2, Professor of Biomedical Engineering and former chair of mechanical engineering at Virginia Commonwealth University, defines disasters as shown in Table 5.2.1.1.1:
Table 5.2.1.1.1 – Disaster categories, characterization and magnitude of impact
CategoryDisaster characterizationNumber of casualties or size of area impacted

Scope I

Small

<10 persons or <1 km2

Scope II

Medium

10–100 persons or 1–10 km2

Scope III

Large

100–1,000 persons or 10–100 km2

Scope IV

Enormous

1000–10,000 persons or 100–1,000 km2

Scope V

Extraordinary (Gargantuan)

>10,000 persons or >1,000 km2

 

  • Peijun Shi 3, Professor and vice-president of Beijing Normal University, member of the Expert Committee under the National Disaster Reduction Committee of China and also a member of OECD’s High Level Advisory Board on Financial Management of Large‐Scale Catastrophes, provided one of the most complete and detailed definition for large-scale disasters: “a serious disaster due to disasters encountered once in one century, causing huge human casualties and economics losses and wide range of impact, which, upon occurring, cannot be independently coped with by the disaster areas and has to be aided by means of external forces”

Generally speaking, such large-scale disasters will have an impact comparable to that of an earthquake of intensity/magnitude at least 7.0 on the Richter scale and it will usually cause:

  • total casualties (deaths) of more than 10,000 persons
  • direct economic loss of more than €10 billion ($12 billion)
  • affected area of over 100,000 km2

The aforementioned impacts are subject to the following specifications:

  • Casualties include population killed and population missing for more than 1 month;
  • Direct economic loss equal to the value of properties actually damaged within a year from and due to the disaster;
  • Affected area refers to the disaster area with human casualties or property loss or damaged ecological system due to the disaster.

Therefore, for a disaster to be characterized as being of large-scale it must meet any two of the following conditions:

  • Death toll of more than 1,000 persons;
  • Direct economic loss of more than 1 billion $;
  • Affected area of over 10,000 km2.

Table 5.2.1.1.2 summarizes qualitatively the main characteristics of large-scale disasters, as these pertain to the aforementioned definitions for the purposes of this report.

Table 5.2.1.1.2 – Large-scale disaster characteristics
Main characteristicsDisaster modeOccurenceScale of single disasterDisaster status

Uncommon

Single

Very rare

Medium

Does not change

Large scale

Rare

Large

Table 5.2.1.1.3 provides a summary of major single-mode disaster, which occurred in the 1989-2013 period with their respective impacts.

Table 5.2.1.1.3 – Large-scale disasters and respective impacts worldwide (1989-2013)
YearDisaster NameIntensity (Richter)Death Toll
(persons approx.)
Affected Area
(103km2)
Economic Losses
(billion $)

1995

Kobe Earthquake Disaster in Japan

7.3

6,434

Approx. 120

86

1998

Yangtze River Basin Flood in China

-

1,562

223

13

2003

SARS in China

 

336

Approx. 500

25

2003

European Heat Wave

-

37,451

Approx. 100

16

2004

Indian Ocean Earthquake – Tsunami Disaster

8.9

230,210 and

45,752 missing

800 x 5 km coastal line seriously damaged

Approx. 0.9

 

2005

Kashmir Earthquake in South Asia

7.6

80,000

Approx. 20

Approx. 4.2

 

2008

Burma Hurricane Disaster

-

78,000 and

56,000 missing

Approx. 20

Approx. 3.4

 

2008

Freezing Rain & Snow Disaster in Southern China

-

129 and

4 missing

Approx. 100

18.2

2008

Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster in China

8.0

69,227 and

17,923 missing

Approx. 50

Approx. 150

2010

Haiti earthquake

7.0

112,250

NA

8

2010

Chile earthquake

8.8

215

0.6

66.7

Footnotes
  • 1. Ma Zhongjin - "Recommendations on China’s regional disaster mitigation. Disaster Reduction in China" article from China National Report On International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, 1999
  • 2. Mohamed Gad-el-Hak - “LARGE-SCALE DISASTERS - Prediction, Control, and Mitigation”. book printed by New York, Cambridge University Press, 2008
  • 3. Peijun Shi, Carlo Jaeger, Qian Ye - "Integrated Risk Governance. Science Plan and Case Studies of Large-scale Disasters" book printed by Beijing Normal University Press, 2012

5.2.1.2 Definition of combined disasters

Many populated areas are affected by a wide variety of disasters, such as earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, flooding, volcanic eruptions, heavy rains, wildfires, etc. Many analyses of disasters take a single-mode approach, which treats disasters as being separate and independent. In many cases, however, the temporal and spatial distributions of these disasters overlap and there can exist interaction relationships between disaster types.

A combined disaster could be defined as a temporal and spatial coincidence of two or more at least medium-scale independent disasters whose consequences do not change in time, resulting in an impact greater than what we would obtain by considering separately the impacts of each disaster independently and summing these up 1. Figure 5.2.1.2 provides a pictorial representation for simultaneous occurring disasters.

Figure 5.2.1.1 – Representation of simultaneous occurring disasters

Figure 5.2.1.1 – Representation of simultaneous occurring disasters

A combined disaster could also be defined as the consecutive occurrence of one at least medium-scale disaster triggering one or more secondary disasters, thus forming a chain reaction (cascade/domino effect), which acts synergistically, and results in a greater catastrophe than what would be expected by a single-mode disaster. In such case we consider the status of the disaster to change in time.

In the evaluation of the aftermath of a combined disaster the approach should be differentiated between a situation where a primary disaster triggers secondary disaster(s) (e.g. a flood triggering a landslide) and a situation where that primary disaster increases the possibility of secondary disasters occurring. The occurrence of a given disaster may not only cause additional events via cascade or domino effects, such as earthquakes triggering tsunamis, or volcanic eruptions triggering earthquakes, but the initial event may also increase the vulnerability of the region to disasters in the future. An example of this would be a case of an earthquake, which would damage a flood defense structure like a dam.

There is also a direct relationship between the intensity or magnitude of the primary disaster and the intensity of the secondary disaster(s) which may amplify the total impact.

Table 5.2.1.2.1 summarizes qualitatively the main characteristics of combined disasters, as these pertain to the aforementioned definitions for the purposes of this report.

Table 5.2.1.2.1 – Combined disaster characteristics
Main characteristicsDisaster modeOccurenceScale of single disasterDisaster status

Simultaneously occurring

Multiple

Simultaneous

Medium

Does not change

Chain-reaction

Consecutive

Medium

Changes with time

Table 5.2.1.2.2 provides a summary of major combined disasters, which occurred in the 2005-2013 period with their respective impacts.

Table 5.2.1.2.2 – Combined disasters and respective impacts worldwide (2005-2013)
YearDisaster NameIntensity (Richter)Death Toll (persons approx.)Affected Area (103km2)Economic Losses (billion $)

2005

Hurricane Katrina in USA

-

1,836 pers. dead

40

105

2011

Flood in Thailand

-

815 pers. dead

20

45.7

2011

East Japan earthquake and tsunami

9.0

15,870 pers. dead

2,814 pers. missing

561

200

Footnotes
  • 1. MATRIX results II and Reference Report/Deliverable D8.5- New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe - Risk governance and the communication process from science to policy: Evaluating perceptions of stakeholders from practice in multi-hazard and multi-risk decision support models - N. Komendantova, R. Mrzyglocki, A. Mignan, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, A. Patt, K. Fleming (http://matrix.gpi.kit.edu/downloads/MATRIX-D8.5.pdf)

5.2.1.3. Differences between common and large-scale disasters

From the viewpoint of disasters and the disaster management cycle, as shown in Figure 5.2.1.3.1, we can define a situation as being well managed when the management cycle evolves smoothly.

Figure 5.2.1.3.1 – Disater management cycle

Figure 5.2.1.3.1 – Disater management cycle

In case of combined and large-scale disasters, the management cycle does not suffice to properly characterize the situation. Combined and large-scale disasters can be recognized as the situation in which the disaster level is large and complicated, the vulnerability of the potentially affected area is high, and the capacity of the potentially affected area is not enough. Figure 5.2.1.3.2 portrays the differences between common and uncommon disasters.

Figure 5.2.1.3.2 - Difference between common and uncommon disasters

Figure 5.2.1.3.2 - Difference between common and uncommon disasters

According to the definition provided by Quarentelly in 1985, “Disaster is a crisis situation that far exceeds the capabilities”.

In case of uncommon disasters, the potentially affected area has less capacity to handle it and is more vulnerable against the uncommon disaster; therefore, the potential consequences are usually great. In case of uncommon disasters, the disaster level is large and so is the disaster. In case of simultaneous occurring disasters, the capacity is not enough to resist against these. Chain-reaction disasters involve situations where the multiple disasters occur consecutively; therefore, the capacity does not suffice to resist against the disasters.

5.2.1.4 Experiences and lessons learned

This chapter present the major experiences in the world, best practices and lesson learned from large scale and combined disasters.

5.2.1.4.1 Major experiences in the world

In order to analyze the weaknesses in disaster management that were realized from combined and large-scale disasters, an international survey was conducted to countries that suffered from major disasters. Table 5.2.1.4.1.1 provides the details of the international survey.

Table 5.2.1.4.1.1 – International survey details
Survey itemsDescription
Survey date

From May 2013 to May 2014

Survey countries

Member countries of PIARC TC1.5

The countries that suffered from recent well-known major hazard

Survey form

Character of the disaster

Major difficulty in disaster management

ITS application in disaster management

Review and lessons in terms of the key-words below

Robustness

Self-sustainedness

Dynamic risk management

 

Thirteen case studies were collected through the survey. Table 5.2.1.4.1.2 provides a list of these.

Table 5.2.1.4.1.2 – Collected experiences and reporters

 

DisasterReporter

1

[Large scale disaster –Large-]

1994 Northridge Earthquake, USA

Herby LISSADE

Chief, Office of emergency

Caltrans, USA

2

[Large scale disaster –Large-]

1995 Kobe Earthquake, Japan

Yukio ADACHI

Chief maintenance engineer,

Hanshin expressway, JAPAN

3

[Combined disaster -Simultaneous & Chain-]

2005 Hurricane Katrina, USA

James LAMBERT

Professor

University of Virginia, USA

4

[Large scale disaster –Large-]

2007 Tabasco flood, Mexico

Gustavo MORENO

President, SESPEC

MEXICO

5

[Combined disaster - Simultaneous -]

2009 Taiwan heavy rain, Taiwan

Chin-Fa, CHEN

Directorate General of Highways

MOTC, Taiwan

6

[Large scale disaster -Uncommon-]

2010 Eruption of Volcano Merapi, Indonesia

Djoko MURJANTO

Director general of highways

MOI, Indonesia

7

[Large scale disaster -Uncommon-]

2010 Chemical Spill, Hungary

Csilla KAMARAS

Engineer

National Transport Authority, Hungary

 

8

 

[Large scale disaster -Large-]

2010 Romania flood, Romania

Constantin ZBARNEA

Regional Division of Roads and Bridges Iasi

ROMANIA

9

[Combined disaster - Simultaneous -]

2011 East Japan earthquake, Japan

Yukio ADACHI

Chief maintenance engineer,

Hanshin expressway, JAPAN

10

[Large scale disaster –Large-]

2011 Kii Peninsula Heavy Rain, Japan

Yukio ADACHI

Chief maintenance engineer,

Hanshin expressway, JAPAN

 

11

 

[Large scale disaster -Uncommon-]

2012 Cameroon flood, Cameroon

Francis NDOUMBA MOUELLE

Kizito NGOA

Cameroon

12

[Large scale disaster -Large-]

2012 Waioeka Gorge Slip, New Zealand

Brett GLIDDON

State Highway Manager

New Zealand Transport Agency, New Zealand

13

[Large scale disaster -Large-]

2013 Queensland flood, Australia

Andrew EXCELL

Regional Manager

MeTRO, DPTI, Australia

 

The collected experiences were categorized into uncommon disaster, large-scale disaster, simultaneously occurring disaster, and chain reaction disasters based on their mode, frequency of occurrence, scale, and status (see Table 5.2.1.4.1.3).

Table 5.2.1.4.1.3 – Disaster categorization
Main characteristicsDisaster modeOcurrenceScale of single disasterDisaster status

Large scale disasters

Uncommon

Single

Very rare

Medium

Does not change

Large scale

Rare

Large

Combined disasters

Simultaneously ocurring

Multiple

Simultaneous

Simultaneous

Does not change

Chain-reaction

Multiple

Consecutive

Consecutive

Changes with time

 

Table 5.2.1.4.1.4 provides a description for the aforementioned categorizations and the collected case studies for each.

5.2.1.4.2 International survey summary

Major lessons collected from recent disaster experiences can be classified into four fields: Pre/post event management, road network, communication-coordination-cooperation, and information management, as shown in figure 5.2.1.4.2.1 – Field classification of case studies from International survey.

Figure 5.2.1.4.2.1 – Field classification of case studies from International survey

Figure 5.2.1.4.2.1 – Field classification of case studies from International survey

Depending on the preparedness of the affected sites, differences in disaster management are observed in each field.

Pre/post event management

There are two major hazard modes. One mode consists of slow-onset hazards such as floods, tropical storms, snow, etc., while the other mode consists of rapid-onset hazards such as earthquakes. The learned lessons are quite different between these modes. Lessons learned from slow-onset disasters are related to pre-event activities aiming to reduce or mitigate the disaster.

The most important lesson derived from the 2005 Hurricane Katrina in USA, was that there had been no preparation for mass evacuation. Mass evacuation requires coordination of several different field organizations and communication between road administrators and evacuees. Mass evacuation strategy has since been studied by FHWA and included in several references. Mass evacuation is approached from an evacuation management angle rather than traffic management.

The case of the 2007 Tabasco heavy rain event in Mexico was considered the result of the slowest onset disaster caused by climate change effects. Some engineers pointed out that this event should serve as a trigger for studies such as “Development of adaptation strategy against extreme events” and “Study on climate change effects to infrastructures”.

Road network

A redundant road network is necessary for disaster management. The derived lessons related to road network are also different between the network development levels. The major lesson is that construction of a redundant road network should be considered when designing and developing the network. For networks already under operation, major lessons derived are related to the quality of the road infrastructure (e.g. reliability and resistive infrastructure) and the standards of the road network.

In the case of the 2000 chemical spill in Hungary, the sole lifeline road was closed due to the spilled sludge for a long time. This road closure, combined with poor infrastructure of the road network, resulted in extreme difficulties in the transportation of logistics due to limited access of freight traffic to the disaster area.

In the case of the 2011 East Japan earthquake, areas hit by the tsunami were isolated due to the loss of a major road network caused by the tsunami and due to damage to local roads caused by the earthquake. High quality road network projects from now on take disaster resilience into consideration for the project cost-benefit analysis [4.2.4].

Communication, coordination, and cooperation

Coordination is very important in managing disasters. Coordination depends on the preparedness of the road authority, related organizations, and society. Coordination work is a process that can be enhanced by good communication among related organizations and road users, and coordination and cooperation between road and non-road related organizations, as shown in Figure 5.2.1.4.2.2.

Figure 5.2.1.4.2.2 – Communication development process and coordination pyramid

Figure 5.2.1.4.2.2 – Communication development process and coordination pyramid

According to the experience of the 2010 Merapi volcano eruption in Indonesia, the major lesson was the limited communication and coordination between related disaster management organizations, which resulted in poor quality of the disaster work. Communication is the first step in coordination.

Advance preparedness in coordination is to make cooperative agreements with related organizations prior to the upcoming event. According to the lessons derived from disaster experiences in Japan, most road authorities prepare such cooperative agreements not only with construction contractors and consultant companies, but also with non-road related organizations [4.2.5].

Information management

Disaster information management is very important for managing disasters. Disaster information management includes:

  • Acquisition of information of disaster.
  • Analysis of disaster.
  • Dissemination of proper disaster information to the road authority itself, related organizations, and road users.

Lessons regarding inadequate acquisition of disaster information can also be derived from the case of the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan, where recognition of damage level and area in the road network was very difficult; conventional communication tools were not available because of the disaster.

Similar lessons were derived from the 2011 East Japan earthquake, where electricity-based communication and information tools were inactive because of power shutdowns due to the strong earthquake and the tsunami that followed. In the case of the 2011 Kii peninsula heavy rain in Japan, long term hazard monitoring was needed to prevent secondary disasters.

An interesting and important lesson was derived from the 2009 Morakot heavy rain in Taiwan. Even though the most advanced early warning system throughout the country was in place, public awareness was limited. This resulted in improper activation of the preparedness action that was supposed to follow based on the message delivered by the warning system. As a result, the Taiwanese government acted to further promote public disaster awareness. ITS technologies are important disaster management tools for information management and for raising public awareness.

The derived lessons from each field are summarized in Table 5.2.1.4.2.1

5.2.1.4.3 Best practices

Coordination in disaster situations

The coordination pyramid including road related organizations and non-road related organizations is shown in Figure 5.2.1.4.3. Within the road-related organizations, efforts have been made for communication and coordination. Coordination is a fundamental process in disaster management and should be enhanced within road-related organizations in order to mitigate further damages due to the disaster.

According to the report regarding the 1995 Northridge earthquake in USA, an advanced approach coordination center was established shortly after the earthquake. This center controls coordinative actions under the power of the state government.

Other advanced approaches to improve coordination have been introduced by Japan. According to these, liaison engineers and task-force engineers are sent to the disaster area in order to promote coordinated restoration actions between national and local governments. This system not only promotes coordinated action but also supports engineering issues to be solved in disasters.

The most advanced preparedness actions are being introduced in Japan. According to the lessons derived from the 2011 East Japan Earthquake, some road authorities are trying to implement mutual cooperative action not only within road related organizations but also with non-road related organizations. This involves making agreements in advance and periodical disaster exercises and drills are carried out among the agreement organizations. The agreements are usually made between national and local governments, road authorities, construction contractors, and consultant companies. The report of the 2011 East Japan earthquake outlines that quick inspection and restoration work could be initiated because of these mutual agreements. Mutual agreements with non-road related organizations such as mass media and NPOs are needed as preparedness actions for future events.

ITS technologies and management practices

Currently, ITS technology is highly developed and it is being applied to improve traffic and safety management. Risk and disaster management are no exception.

An advanced application in the field of disaster management was reported in 2013 in Australia. The flood prediction and road closure possibility information were provided by VMS. The driver survey revealed that information dissemination using ITS technology was very effective for route selection. The continuous challenge for application of ITS technology in risk and disaster management is a continuous challenge and further research is needed in this field.

Case studies from the international survey that identify some good system developments to improve coordination and use of ITS technologies are shown in Table 5.2.1.4.3.

New concept for managing extreme disasters

According to the lessons derived from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a new concept for managing disasters in nuclear engineering was proposed.

The report indicated that the notable characteristics of the nuclear power plant event, which occurred because of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, were that: a) a very wide area was affected, and b) the disaster was compounded by a huge tsunami; therefore, no disaster assistance could be expected from the wider area which was also affected.

The report also indicated that the fatal event at the nuclear power plant was actually a series of separate serious events which occurred in a chain manner. This rendered the nature of the risk time-dependent. As addressing the situation involved both human actions and time-variable hazards, the most appropriate actions to be taken did not remain the same as time progressed to prevent the worst scenario for each elemental risk.

From the aforementioned features, Takada proposed the risk concept be extended so as to incorporate simultaneous failures and time-dependency in risk evolution. For this, the new concept “Safety Burst” was proposed in the report as follows:

Safety burst indicates the physical state that after either a single failure of a part or simultaneous failure of portions of a big complex engineering system with possible large failure consequence is initiated, further damage is propagating and extending and finally the expected performance of the system becomes out of control.

Many key words were introduced for improving management in two major Safety Burst situations -chain reaction-type situations and simultaneous-type failures as shown in Figure 5.2.1.4.3.

Figure 5.2.1.4.3 Key Words Introduced in Chain-Reaction and Simultaneous Type of Disasters

Figure 5.2.1.4.3 Key Words Introduced in Chain-Reaction and Simultaneous Type of Disasters

Among these key words, the ones indicated below and are considered very important.

  • Robust: “The system should be basically indifferent to minor disturbances. The system should be designed so as not to have any relative weak points. Currently, quantitative evaluation of the system is difficult but will be essential in the future.”
  • Self-sustained: “Modern engineering system relies greatly on social infrastructure such as energy supply, data communication, and so on. The component systems relate to each other; hence a large number of systems will lose function if a small related system collapse. In order to prevent interrelated system failure, the system should be independent from other systems. We call such resistant system as self-sustained system.”
  • Dynamic: “Management of disasters should be under the control of the decision-making process or of the risk management process in the information environment by considering the sequential time evolution of the damaged system and while assessing the influence incurred due to the damage.”

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